In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt?
UnterhaltungKIOne-Off1JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 78%
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Aktualisiert vor 11 Minuten
28. Jan. 24, 04:34 UTC2. Jan. 28, 07:59 UTC
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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketRegeln
Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best.
- So instead of a Marvel movie level of quality, think The Room level of quality.
- That's the yardstick that I will be using.
- Alternatively it can be any other well-known bad movie, like Birdemic or Who Killed Captain Alex.
- It doesn't need to have the "so bad it's good" qualities of The Room, but it needs to have a minimally coherent plot structure and cinematography.
- It must not be too painful for humans to watch the entire thing, and it needs to have the basics like characters say and do things that advance the plot, at least usually.
Offene Märkte
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 319.774,8 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 98.048,5 €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,8 Mio. €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 79.986 €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 130.628,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 45.327 €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 4 Mio. €
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 78% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? entschieden?
- In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? soll am 2. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full low-quality movie to a prompt? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Same as the main market but the AI must only be at the level of the worst filmmakers, rather than the best.