Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose1 31.5%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
16
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet2. Jan. 26, 21:50 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
KalshiWill Aliens be discovered in the next three years?
Manifold MarketsWhich of these hypothetical mathematical objects will be shown to exist with an explicit example before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy when will we launch an interstellar vehicle?
Manifold MarketsWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves to the number of “Confirmed” interstellar objects discovered within 2026.
- If there’s a debate on what constitutes an interstellar object, I will use this Wikipedia article as a resolution source:
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object
- So far, there has not been much debate about the observed interstellar objects.
- Objects that had previously collided with earth and are discovered from archival or geological data would not count for the purposes of this market.
- If one is discovered close to the end of the year and doesn’t show up on Wikipedia until 2027, I may wait a bit after market close to see if it’s confirmed (if there’s doubt).
Offene Märkte
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 103.065,4 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57.371,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 57.371,5 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 817.857 €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 1 mit 32% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026? entschieden?
- How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird How many interstellar objects will be discovered in 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves to the number of “Confirmed” interstellar objects discovered within 2026.