Aktuelle Community-Prognose
20% 35.9%Führend unter 9 Optionen
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Stunden
Veraltet14. Mai 26, 07:31 UTC31. Dez. 26, 15:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?
Manifold MarketsWill any world leader call for a global AI pause by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsHow much will global AI inference token usage grow from 2029 to 2030?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegeln
AI diffusion is measured as the share of people between ages of 15 and 64 who have used a generative AI product.
- This measure is derived from aggregated and anonymized Microsoft telemetry and adjusted to reflect differences in OS and device-market share, internet penetration, and country population.
- This data is measured to be 17.8% at Q1 2026.
- https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/corporate-responsibility/topics/ai-economy-institute/reports/global-ai-adoption-2026-q1
- This market will be resolved based on future data published by Microsoft AI Diffusion Report.
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026?
- Manifold Markets bewertet 20% mit 36% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026 entschieden?
- Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026 soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Global AI Diffusion Rate ≥ [X]% by End of Q4 2026 abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: AI diffusion is measured as the share of people between ages of 15 and 64 who have used a generative AI product.