Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore December 2026 80%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet20. Feb. 26, 05:45 UTC1. Dez. 26, 04:59 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
GLM 5.4+ (Z.ai) release date
Manifold MarketsWill Mistral AI release a model named "le chaton fat" by EOY 2026
Manifold MarketsGrand Theft Auto VI: Release date
KalshiOcarina of Time remake release date
Manifold MarketsGrand Theft Auto VI: New trailer release date
KalshiThe Winds of Winter: Release date announced this year?
KalshiRegeln
Minor changes to the name, such as 'GLM 5.6' or 'GLM 5.5-Turbo', will count for the purpose of this market.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @2CqdhIO9cU (this market)
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 224.720,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 160.486,9 €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 344.925,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before December 2026 mit 80% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date entschieden?
- GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date soll am 1. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird GLM 5.5 (Z.ai) release date abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Minor changes to the name, such as 'GLM 5.6' or 'GLM 5.5-Turbo', will count for the purpose of this market.