Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 79.7%
Prognostiker
180
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
4. März 26, 03:00 UTC1. Jan. 27, 03:50 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Donut Battery powered car delivered by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich promised metric will donut battery fail to deliver on.
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill I deem Donut Lab's solid state battery claims in their video to have been false one year from now?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
(This settles EOY if necessary but we will surely know much sooner)
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if independent testing confirms the Donut Battery contains less than 0.1% lithium by weight.
- The market resolves NO if testing confirms lithium content at or above 0.1% by weight.
- Resolution will be determined by peer-reviewed analysis, official company disclosure with third-party verification, or independent laboratory testing from credible institutions (e.g., VTT Technical Research Centre, university materials science departments, or certified battery analysis labs).
- Links to testing results and composition data will serve as primary resolution sources.
