Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseOpenAI 37.4%+4.0ptFührend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
6
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+17.4 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet28. Okt. 26, 00:50 UTC1. Jan. 31, 00:48 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will we be able to solve all NP problems in polynomial time by 2200? (any practical computation method, e.g. BPP, BQP)
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI publicly claim a solution to a SECOND Millennium Prize Problem by November 30, 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketWill we get ASI before 2029?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the entity or organization that is primarily credited with providing the first widely accepted proof resolving the "P versus NP" problem (whether $P = NP$ or $P \neq NP$).
- Verification Standard: A solution will be considered valid if it meets consensus acceptance within the theoretical computer science / mathematics community, signified by:
- Acceptance and publication in a reputable peer-reviewed mathematics or theoretical computer science journal, and/or
- Formal recognition by the Clay Mathematics Institute for the Millennium Prize Problem award.
- Answer Options:
