Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2026-11-01 96%+1.2ptFührend unter 7 Optionen
Prognostiker
13
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+7.2 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
31. Aug. 26, 14:57 UTC11. Nov. 26, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next Claude Opus Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketNext Claude Opus released by which date?
PolymarketWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The '+' means any version at or above 5.1 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.1 and releases Claude Opus 5.2 or Opus 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Opus 5.1, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Offene Märkte
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 132.799,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 100.316,6 €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 322.392,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before 2026-11-01 mit 96% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date entschieden?
- Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date soll am 11. November 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Claude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The '+' means any version at or above 5.1 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.1 and releases Claude Opus 5.2 or Opus 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.