Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose2050-12-31 71.9%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Stunden
Veraltet30. Aug. 26, 02:59 UTC31. Dez. 50, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship first launch with useful payload?
Manifold MarketsWill a laser lift a payload to space before 2040?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRegeln
Space elevators, launch loops, mass drivers, spin launch, whatever.
- Anything that gets at least 1/3 of its delta-V from something not a rocket counts.
- From the surface of the Earth, Moon, Mars, or anything else with at least the Moon's escape velocity, to orbit or escape.
- Payload must survive enough to transmit from orbit or do something useful.
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen??
- Manifold Markets bewertet 2050-12-31 mit 72% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? entschieden?
- By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? soll am 31. Dezember 2050 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird By when will the first non-traditional launch of an orbital payload happen? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Space elevators, launch loops, mass drivers, spin launch, whatever.