Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseBefore 2027-06-01 92.3%+1.4ptFührend unter 38 Optionen
Prognostiker
73
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+1.4 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
15. März 24, 14:03 UTC1. Jan. 28, 22:59 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will SpaceX be the customer for more than half of orbital payload mass in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida?
KalshiWhen will Starship launch from Florida for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship launch one hundred times by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
LimitlessRegeln
The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.
- It could be a Starlink satellite, a commercial satellite from another company, or a scientific satellite even if it is launched pro bono.
- Mass simulator or meme payloads like Elon's car do not count.
- The payload should be deployed into the desired initial orbit (or an orbit close enough that it could be corrected by the satellite itself).
- The market will resolve even if the satellite itself malfunctions after the deployment.
- I do not bet on my own questions.
Offene Märkte
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt88%
- OpenAI-1.7pt10%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,2 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 85.315,7 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- Yes59.4%
- No40.6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 153.550,7 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 39.161,6 €
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+3.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
- October 3197%
- Successful splash down?84%
- September 30-5.3pt83%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 409.901,9 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+1.3pt59.8%
- SpaceX-4.5pt38.1%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-1.0pt84%
- Above 9-27.0pt46%
- Above 10-8.0pt23%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- Next Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für When will Starship first launch with useful payload??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Before 2027-06-01 mit 92% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird When will Starship first launch with useful payload? entschieden?
- When will Starship first launch with useful payload? soll am 1. Januar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird When will Starship first launch with useful payload? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The market will resolve positively when SpaceX Starship rocket first launches any commercial or scientific payload into orbit.