Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 10:26 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
2050 or earlier 19.7%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Prognostiker
118
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
0.0 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet1. Apr. 24, 14:37 UTC31. Jan. 00, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
When will Forecasting Bots beat the best Superforecasters
Manifold MarketsHow low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash input token price get in 2026?
KalshiHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 input token price get in 2026?
KalshiHow low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash output token price (paid tier) get in 2026?
KalshiHow low will the OpenAI GPT 5.5 input token price get in 2026?
KalshiHow high will the US national average gas price get in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market resolves each option as NO if the date passes and Kenshin9000 (or anyone) has not defeated stockfish with an LLM-based chess engine.
- All remaining options resolve YES once an LLM-based engine defeats stockfish (or top engine).
- My resolution criteria are more strict than Mira’s:
- The LLM engine must have higher ELO than the latest stockfish (or whatever the top engine is at resolution time) at blitz timings with 99.9% confidence and be reproduced by 3+ people.
- The LLM engine must not use another chess engine at runtime.
- For the purposes of this market, Large Language Models are 100M+ parameter general-purpose generative text models.
