By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
KI3MonManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose< 0.05x 35.4%Führend unter 6 Optionen
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Aktualisiert vor 17 Stunden
Veraltet2. Feb. 26, 01:41 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
Intelligence bar
- "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent intelligence" is defined as any commercially available model scoring the same as Gemini 3 Pro on ECI or better
- Currently this is 154, but the bar will track any changes in ECI methodology that might change the 3 Pro score.
- Cost is defined as the price for 1m input tokens plus 1m output tokens for the cheapest model that passes the quality bar, at the generally-available API pricing tier for that model.
- At time of writing, 3-pro preview costs $2/Mtok input plus $12/Mtok output, so $14 is the reference cost basis.
- E.g. a future qualifying model that costs $1/Mtok input plus $3/MTok output would resolve as 4/14 = 0.286... thus 0.2x-0.5x.
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year??
- Manifold Markets bewertet < 0.05x mit 35% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? entschieden?
- By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Intelligence bar