Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents??

Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 90.4% (Stand: 1. November 2026).

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriert

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Ja 90.4%

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Fragetyp

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Play-money forecasting platform

Quellentyp

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Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden

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3. Okt. 23, 12:05 UTC2. Jan. 30, 04:59 UTC

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Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856.

Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no.
So, market, obviously.
Resolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise.
If the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert.
If the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early.