Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 25.10.2026, 20:28 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 82.4%
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 2 Stunden
Veraltet31. Mai 25, 18:37 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Donald Trump serve time under House Arrest before 2027?
Manifold MarketsArrest of any of Lula's ministers in 2026?
FutuurArrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurIf Trump is imprisoned before 2030, will he serve house arrest but NOT prison time?
Manifold MarketsWill the ICC issue an arrest warrant against a sitting world leader before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill communists arrest me for speech violations within the next year?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2026, there is a publicly reported incident where an individual is arrested based on information provided by an artificial intelligence system that autonomously reported or "snitched" on the individual's activities, leading directly to the arrest.
- The AI system must have independently identified and reported the behavior without human initiation.
- Verification will be based on credible news sources reporting such an event.
