FutuurVerfügbarkeit prüfenVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 91%
Nein 91%Marktqualitat
33 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Liquidität
976,5 €
Niedrige LiquiditätTrader
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?
KalshiWill Jair Bolsonaro leave prison by the end of January 2027?
FutuurHow much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
Manifold MarketsJair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketJair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Jair Bolsonaro ever be a candidate again for any Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This event predicts whether any son of former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro (Carlos, Eduardo, Flávio, or Renan Bolsonaro) will be arrested at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- For this market, an “arrest” means physical detention by law enforcement authorities with the intent to hold the person in custody.
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official confirmation from competent law enforcement or judicial authorities (e.g., official statements or court/custody records).
- If any of the individuals listed above is arrested (as defined) during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- An arrest will count for "Yes" even if it is brief or followed by release on bail.