How much time will Jair Bolsonaro spend in jail (not house arrest) by Dec 31, 2031?
PolitikGeopolitik5JManifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose1+ days 100%Führend unter 7 Optionen
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aktualisiert vor 9 Stunden
Veraltet12. Sept. 25, 13:24 UTC31. Dez. 31, 23:59 UTC
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Arrest of any of Jair Bolsonaro's sons in 2026?
FutuurJair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketJair Bolsonaro pardoned by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Jair Bolsonaro be pardoned?
KalshiWill Jair Bolsonaro ever be a candidate again for any Brazilian presidential election?
Manifold MarketsJair Bolsonaro dies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
On 2025-09-11, Brazil’s Supreme Court (First Panel) convicted Jair Bolsonaro in a landmark coup-plot case and set a sentence of 27 years and 3 months.
- The reported vote was 4–1, with lengthy opinions connecting the conviction to efforts to overturn the 2022 election. 🏛️
- Even with a headline sentence, custody status can shift during appeals and sentence execution in Brazil.
- Early phases may involve special accommodations, transfers, and moves among closed, semi-open, and open regimes.
- This market doesn’t adjudicate politics; it measures a single empirical variable: days spent sleeping under custodial control in a penal facility.
- Brazilian law may grant special cells or a State-Major room (“cela especial” / “sala de Estado-Maior”) to certain defendants.