Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose
North America 82.9%Führend unter 5 Optionen
Prognostiker
81
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+0.2 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 16 Stunden
Veraltet3. Jan. 24, 14:03 UTC31. Dez. 26, 22:59 UTC
Trends
0.1%
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Regeln
This question is copy of the other question where the options are dependent on each other.
- In case company will be multinational, place of their HQ will be considered.
- If it will be research program or joint venture by multiple companies the majority state will be considered.
- Feel free to add other continents if you feel so.
- Criteria to be used for AGI will be the same as the one in the long bet: https://longbets.org/1/
- Duration will be extended as needed.
Offene Märkte
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 241.307,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 128.006,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 349.424,1 €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für A company from which continent will achieve AGI first??
- Manifold Markets bewertet North America mit 83% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird A company from which continent will achieve AGI first? entschieden?
- A company from which continent will achieve AGI first? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird A company from which continent will achieve AGI first? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This question is copy of the other question where the options are dependent on each other.