Warnung zur DatenqualitätVeraltete Daten
Daten vom 14.07.2026, 17:50 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-2
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Vacant Senate seats at start of term 25.9%Führend unter 19 Optionen
Prognostiker
33
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Tagen
Veraltet9. Juli 25, 23:034. Jan. 27, 23:59
Trends
Nur virtuelles Guthaben – kein echtes GeldKeine Finanzberatung
Gewähltes Ergebnis
Vacant Senate seats at start of term26%
Volumentrend
$6110. Juli3T Daten14. Juli
Verwandte Märkte
By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?
44 €Ja: 3.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS2028 Presidency: Vance, Newsom, or Other?
28,9 €Vance (R) defeats Newsom (D): 5.7%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
26 €Trump bans abortion nationwide: 3.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
16,6 €Ja: 17%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
0 €Ja: 37%
KALSHI
KALSHI
Will an AI professional-impersonation bill become law in New York?
0 €Ja: 8%KALSHI
KALSHIIn diesen Themen aktiv
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This is intended to capture whether any of the weird edge cases surround the election and seating of the next Congress come to pass, especially focused on things that might cause other markets to resolve in unexpected or apparently contradictory ways.
- These scenarios cover Congressional elections only; State or local elections are not included.
- Details where they might be needed:
- The start of the term is Noon on Jan 3rd, 2027.
- The first day is the actual first day -- Jan 3rd, or later if so decided by law.
- Major news organizations: AP, CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC.