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Daten vom 15.10.2026, 15:23 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseMarket chaos 69.2%Führend unter 19 Optionen
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37
Fragetyp
multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
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Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet9. Juli 25, 23:03 UTC4. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
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2026 Election Weirdness Index
Manifold MarketsWill a Republican House or Senate Candidate say Donald Trump should run for a third term before Midterms Election Day?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans win the 2026 midterms election?
Manifold MarketsWhat will really exactly happen in the 2026 midterms election?
Manifold Markets8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job loss [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the margin in the 2026 New York Gubernatorial election?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This is intended to capture whether any of the weird edge cases surround the election and seating of the next Congress come to pass, especially focused on things that might cause other markets to resolve in unexpected or apparently contradictory ways.
- These scenarios cover Congressional elections only; State or local elections are not included.
- Details where they might be needed:
- The start of the term is Noon on Jan 3rd, 2027.
- The first day is the actual first day -- Jan 3rd, or later if so decided by law.
- Major news organizations: AP, CNN, Fox, ABC, CBS, NBC.
