Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-Prognose6000-7999 39%Führend unter 11 Optionen
Prognostiker
40
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+13.3 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Stunden
Veraltet20. Mai 26, 15:47 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
2026 Ebola epidemic case count?
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PolymarketHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiWhen will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves based on the consensus/best estimate of (suspected) deaths from the current Bundibugyo virus outbreak at the end of the epidemic, probably using numbers released by the WHO or on the Wikipedia page, unless there's good reason to believe that they have stopped updating these numbers reliably (this is probably unlikely).
- https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Ituri_Province_Ebola_epidemic
- If the epidemic expands into a pandemic or continues into 2027, the market will be extended as necessary.
- The "Other" category means any deaths total larger than the current buckets.
- I may add more higher buckets from the "Other" category as necessary (if you're new to Manifold, don't worry, if you bet on Other, your shares will automatically be transferred onto any new buckets split off, this is fine and normal).