Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 97%
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet21. Dez. 25, 09:17 UTC30. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
KalshiAnother US government shutdown & House Winner 2026?
PolymarketWill the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWill president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill two Democratic and two GOP Senators cosponsor an AI bill that mentions widespread job loss from AI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating rises above 48% in 2026 AND Republicans retain control of both the House of Representatives and Senate after the midterms AND U.S. GDP growth is above 5% in any quarter between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) stays below 5% in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Sources from VoteHub, U.S. House of Representatives, U.S. Senate, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Bureau of Labor Statistics.
- Resolves the same as Kalshi: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxtrumpbullcasecombo/trumps-year-bull-dream-case/kxtrumpbullcasecombo-27dec