KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätKeine Handelsaktivität
Daten vom 08.09.2026, 22:15 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Above $500 billion 0%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Marktqualitat
39 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Liquidität
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Liquidität unbekanntSpread
4.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 3 Minuten
26. Aug. 26, 19:00 UTC4. Feb. 30, 13:29 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
US trade deficit for 2026?
KalshiUS trade deficit for 2027
KalshiUS trade deficit for 2032
KalshiUS Trade Deficit in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will join the CPTPP trade agreement before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2029.
Offene Märkte
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt54%
- No change-3.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,9 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,7 Mio. €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.193 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 30.705,7 €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 334.228 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 12.782,3 €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+1.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,90081%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 77.923 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 5527,9 €
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- August Inflation US - Annual
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- CPI in September
- CPI core in August
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für US trade deficit for 2029?
- Kalshi bewertet Above $500 billion mit 0% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird US trade deficit for 2029 entschieden?
- US trade deficit for 2029 soll am 4. Februar 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird US trade deficit for 2029 abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2029 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.