KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätKeine Handelsaktivität
Daten vom 08.09.2026, 16:20 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Above $500 billion 0%Führend unter 8 Optionen
Marktqualitat
31 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
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Liquidität
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Liquidität unbekanntSpread
7.0 pt
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 8 Minuten
26. Aug. 26, 15:30 UTC4. Feb. 28, 13:25 UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
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Regeln
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2027.
Offene Märkte
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 89,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 323.760,3 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 25.329 €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 523.015,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 22.025,7 €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 22,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 4356,6 €
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für US trade deficit for 2027?
- Kalshi bewertet Above $500 billion mit 0% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird US trade deficit for 2027 entschieden?
- US trade deficit for 2027 soll am 4. Februar 2028 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird US trade deficit for 2027 abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2027 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.