Warnung zur DatenqualitätKeine aktiven Kurse
Daten vom 08.09.2026, 21:05 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-3
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Alice Weidel 15%Führend unter 6 Optionen
Marktqualitat
27 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
54,1 €
Niedrige LiquiditätSpread
9.0 pt
Breiter SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Minuten
24. Aug. 26, 21:00 UTC26. Aug. 29, 14:00 UTC
Trends
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWill Ed Miliband become Chancellor of the Exchequer before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government raise the sales tax before the next federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiRegeln
If the named outcome becomes Chancellor of Germany as a result of government formation following the next German federal election and meets all constitutional requirements before Aug 26, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:Der Bundeswahlleiter
- The market resolves to the first person who, as a result of government formation following the next German federal election, is formally appointed, sworn in, or invested as Chancellor, commands the confidence of the Bundestag, and exercises the full powers of the office rather than serving in a caretaker or acting capacity.
- A person who becomes Chancellor through an intra-term change of government, without a new federal election, does NOT resolve this market If no government has formed by Aug 26, 2029, the named outcome resolves YES and every other market resolves NO If new elections are called before a government forms, the named outcome resolves YES immediately
- This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner.
- See full rules for details.
- For this market a qualifying declaration must identify the person who will hold the Chancellorship following government formation; a declaration that a party has won the election does NOT qualify.