Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
December 31, 2027 25%Führend unter 7 Optionen
December 31, 2027 25%Marktqualitat
73 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
17.309,6 €
Liquidität
113.201,1 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
2.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
-3.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Minuten
5. Nov. 25, 19:35 UTC1. Jan. 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
September 30, 2026Verloren
Vor Schließung: 0% ·
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Friedrich Merz cease to be chancellor before 14th October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?
Manifold MarketsWho replaces Merz as Chancellor if he gets replaced before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRegeln
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
- The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.