Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 82%
Prognostiker
27
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet30. Juli 26, 13:44 UTC1. Jan. 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Chancellor Merz announce a German defense spending increase to 3.0% of GDP by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor?
KalshiFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany?
FutuurWill the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?
Manifold MarketsWill Markus Söder ever be German chancellor?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if Friedrich Merz is the official Federal Chancellor (Bundeskanzler) of Germany at any point on January 1, 2027, according to official government sources.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The primary source of truth for this market will be the official portal of the Federal Chancellor (https://www.bundeskanzler.de) or the Federal Government of Germany (https://www.bundesregierung.de).
- In the event of a delay in updating these websites, credible international news outlets (such as Deutsche Welle, Reuters, or Bloomberg) will be used to verify who holds the office on that date.
- Note on acting chancellors: If Friedrich Merz is serving as an acting (geschäftsführender) Chancellor on January 1, 2027 (e.g., following a vote of no confidence or the collapse of a coalition), this market will still resolve to YES, provided he has not officially stepped down or been replaced by a successor sworn in by the Federal President.