Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Other 22.6%+10.1ptFührend unter 8 Optionen
Prognostiker
4
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+10.1 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
14. Sept. 26, 16:58 UTC21. Okt. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWhich parties will gain seats in the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsNext German federal election winner?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves to the first person who takes the oath as Federal Chancellor after Merz, if that happens before the next Bundestag election.
- Resolves N/A if Merz remains until then.
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+12.0pt81.2%
- Yes-12.0pt18.8%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 15,1 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.3pt19%
- Jon Ossoff+0.8pt17%
- Gavin Newsom+0.5pt13%
+48 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate+3.0pt50%
- D-House, R-Senate-2.0pt34%
- R-House, R-Senate-3.0pt14%
+1 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 188,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 675.810,8 €
KALSHILos Angeles Mayor winner?
- Karen Bass-2.0pt63%
- Nithya Raman+3.0pt37%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 27,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 642.577,1 €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.5pt52.5%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt45.5%
- Renan Santos+0.1pt2%
+16 weitere Ergebnisse
- Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Texas Senate winner?
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Other mit 23% (Stand: 15. September 2026).
- Wann wird Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? entschieden?
- Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? soll am 21. Oktober 2029 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Who replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves to the first person who takes the oath as Federal Chancellor after Merz, if that happens before the next Bundestag election.