Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 89.7%
Prognostiker
15
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet1. März 24, 14:02 UTC1. Jan. 31, 05:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsNext Chancellor of Germany before 2028?
PolymarketWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiHow many people will serve as Speaker of the House in 2026?
KalshiDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsRegeln
resolves yes if an AfD member serves as chancellor at any point prior to December 31, 2030
Offene Märkte
PoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-2.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)+1.6pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.3pt3%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 26,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 1,4 Mio. €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt16%
- Tucker Carlson4%
+39 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 613,1 Mio. €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.7pt93%
- Yes+1.7pt7%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 18,6 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 721.239,7 €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom13%
+45 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 190,5 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 653.397,3 €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt87%
- Republican Party-2.0pt13%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 27,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 436.648,5 €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.6pt18%
- Gavin Newsom-2.2pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.7pt16%
+48 weitere Ergebnisse
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Next French Presidential Election
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 90% (Stand: 16. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? entschieden?
- Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? soll am 1. Januar 2031 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: resolves yes if an AfD member serves as chancellor at any point prior to December 31, 2030