Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
No Next Chancellor before 2028 54%+3.5ptFührend unter 13 Optionen
Marktqualitat
73 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
3708,6 €
Liquidität
116.348,2 €
Hohe LiquiditätSpread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
1
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
15. Sept. 26, 21:29 UTC1. Jan. 28, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
PolymarketWill a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiWho replaces Merz as Chancellor before the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill Merz be German chancellor on Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsMecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner
PolymarketRegeln
Friedrich Merz has served as Chancellor of Germany since May 6, 2025.
- This market will resolve to the next individual, other than Friedrich Merz, who assumes the office of Chancellor of Germany.
- To count for resolution, the individual must be elected Chancellor by the Bundestag and appointed by the Federal President.
- Any acting or caretaker Chancellor will not count toward the resolution of this market.
- If no such Chancellor takes office, or if Friedrich Merz is the next individual elected Chancellor, by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “the named outcome”.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Bundestag and the Federal Government of Germany; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.