2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
3.0 Pkt. (24h)PolitikOne-OffUS-PolitikWahlUS-Zwischenwahlen 20263Mon
KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertMittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Democrats, ≥2% · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Preis
Democrats, ≥2% 95.5%Führend unter 13 Optionen
Democrats, ≥2% 95.5%Marktqualitat
63 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
2638,3 €
Open Interest
28.502,8 $
Hohes Open InterestGeld / Brief
— / —
Democrats, ≥2%Spread
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
15. Sept. 26, 16:00 UTC3. Feb. 27, 15:00 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · Democrats, ≥2%
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Manifold MarketsRegeln
If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- Democrats, ≥2%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 2 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥4%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 4 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥5%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 5 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥6%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 6 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥7%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 7 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥8%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 8 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥9%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 9 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥10%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥11%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 11 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥12%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 12 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥13%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 13 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥14%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 14 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, ≥16%
- If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 16 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.