2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
2.2 Pkt. (24h)PolitikOne-OffUS-Zwischenwahlen 2026US-PolitikWahl3Mon
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseDemocrats, ≥4% 92.2%+2.2ptFührend unter 12 Optionen
Prognostiker
5
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+42.2 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet25. Okt. 26, 20:10 UTC3. Feb. 27, 15:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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Kalshi2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
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PolymarketIf Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Mirrors this Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03/kxhousepopvotemargind-26nov03-al10
- Resolves according to Kalshi's final result, using Kalshi's rules for this market.
- Kalshi's rules: If the Democratic minus Republican margin in the national House popular vote is at least 10 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.