2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
One-OffPolitikWahlUS-PolitikUS-Zwischenwahlen 20261J
KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertMittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
Democrats, 8 to 10% · —
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Gespeicherter Preis
Democrats, 8 to 10% 26.5%Führend unter 10 Optionen
Democrats, 8 to 10% 26.5%Marktqualitat
92 / 100
Hohe Qualität24h-Volumen
136.647,3 €
Open Interest
2,6 Mio. $
Hohes Open InterestGeld / Brief
— / —
Democrats, 8 to 10%Spread
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Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 33 Minuten
4. Feb. 26, 15:00 UTC3. Nov. 27, 13:00 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Markttiefe · Democrats, 8 to 10%
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Kalshi2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory
Polymarket2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Directional)
Manifold MarketsGeneric Ballot: Democrats Up/Down (10/23-10/30)?
KalshiWill there be a polling error of at least 5% in the 2026 generic ballot polling?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:the Clerk of the House
- The national House popular vote margin of victory shall be calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if the Democratic party wins the national House popular vote and negative if they lose the national House popular vote. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound. No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin. For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Regeln für jedes Ergebnis
- Democrats, 8 to 10%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 8 and 10 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 10 to 12%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 10 and 12 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 12 to 14%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 12 and 14 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 6 to 8%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 6 and 8 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 4 to 6%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 4 and 6 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Republicans win
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 14 to 16%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 14 and 16 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 2 to 4%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 2 and 4 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 16% and above
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 16 and 100 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democrats, 0 to 2%
- If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between 0 and 2 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.