KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlich2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
AfD 77%Führend unter 7 OptionenMargenbereinigt: Die Rohquoten summierten sich auf über 100 % und wurden normalisiert.
Marktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
—
Liquidität
18.461,5 €
Mittlere LiquiditätSpread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 11 Minuten
28. Juli 26, 16:23 UTC25. März 30, 14:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Manifold MarketsWill the AfD participate in a German federal or state government by the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
PolymarketNext Canadian federal election winner?
KalshiWho will become Chancellor of Germany following the next federal election?
KalshiRegeln
If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:Bundeswahlausschuss
- For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber.
- If two parties have the same number of seats, the one entering government will resolve to Yes and all others to No; if both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. For purposes of this market, the seats won by the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union (CSU) will be combined and treated as a single CDU/CSU option
- This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls.
- See full rules for details.
Offene Märkte
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Next German federal election winner??
- Kalshi bewertet AfD mit 77% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Next German federal election winner? entschieden?
- Next German federal election winner? soll am 25. März 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Next German federal election winner? abgerechnet?
- Kalshi rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: If AfD wins the next election to the German Bundestag, then the market resolves to Yes.