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  3. Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?

One-OffForeign Exchange6Mon
PolymarketPolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% Gebühr
Aktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Ja
Ja 19%
Marktqualitat

49 / 100

Niedrige Qualität
24h-Volumen

0 €

Liquidität

13.515 €

Mittlere Liquidität
Geld / Brief

18.0% / 19.0%

Spread

5.6%

Mittlerer Spread
7d-Änderung

-2.5%

Marktdaten

Aktualisiert vor 1 Minute

3. Dez. 25, 17:2631. Dez. 26, 0:00

Trends

Ergebnis24hWahrscheinlichkeit

Gewähltes Ergebnis

Yes19%

Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
  • A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
  • If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
  • If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”

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Regeln

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
  • For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
  • A coalition break may be evidenced by: – a formal withdrawal from the coalition, – the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party, – or the appointment of a new federal government.
  • If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
  • If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”