KalshiVerfügbarkeit prüfenKYC erforderlichVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Before Jan 1, 2027 63%Führend unter 4 Optionen
Before Jan 1, 2027 63%Marktqualitat
45 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
232,7 €
Liquidität
647,4 €
Niedrige LiquiditätSpread
4.0 pt
Mittlerer SpreadMarktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Minuten
24. Sept. 26, 02:00 UTC1. Dez. 26, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Kalshi
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Vorzeitige Schließung:
- Ja
- Abrechnungsfrist:
- 30m (unverbindliche Angabe)
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
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KalshiWill Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
If an Anthropic product has implemented a general-purpose personal AI agent that remembers the user and starts multi-step tasks across third-party apps on its own the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Abwicklung über:AnthropicTechCrunchThe VergeArs TechnicaWiredReutersBloomberg TechnologyThe InformationThe Wall Street Journal Technology sectionVentureBeatEngadgetThe New York Times Technology sectionAssociated Press Technology coverageAxios Technology newsletterPolitico Technology coverage
- The function must be live and processing user interactions, not explicitly labeled as "beta," "test," "experimental," "preview," or "early access" or similar, and officially acknowledged by the company through announcements, documentation, or help pages.
- Implementation includes direct integration into the product's interface, automatic application to user accounts, user-initiated activation through official controls, API implementation, or policy changes that operationally enforce the function.
- Announcements without deployment, employee-only testing, technical documentation without implementation, and third-party additions without authorization do not qualify.
- The implementation must occur in the United States unless otherwise specified.
- If it meets these conditions, it counts from the first date it is live for users outside the company, including in a gradual rollout or a waitlist, invitation-only, or paid-tier release.
