Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Before 2027-04-01 94.5%Führend unter 9 Optionen
Prognostiker
10
Fragetyp
multiple choice
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
7d-Änderung
+44.5 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 12 Stunden
Veraltet28. Okt. 26, 22:03 UTC1. Apr. 27, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
How low will the Claude Opus 4.8 input token price get in 2026?
KalshiWill "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 output token price get in 2026?
KalshiWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWill "Claude 4.5 Opus' Soul Document" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Insights into Claude Opus 4.5 from Pokémon" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
The '+' means any version at or above 5.6 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.6 and releases Claude Opus 5.7 or Opus 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Opus 5.6, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.