Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 61.3%
Tahminciler
27
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis2 Eyl 23 06:37 UTC1 Oca 30 07:28 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Nick Bostrom (philosopher, existential risk researcher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Toby Ord (existential risk philosopher) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsExistential risk markets banned on Manifold before 2030
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
Manifold MarketsWill "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolves Yes, if, before 2030, a poll conducted by one of the leading French opinion polling firms (e. g., ipsos) reports that IA Doom, or other formulation of the Intelligence Artificielle-related existential risk, ranks in the top 5 of concerns of French resident for the near future.
- Will resolves No, if the IA concerns are mostly about impact on the economy, unemployment or internet Spam rather than total human annihilation.
- If no polls is conducted, clearly this concern is not part of the French zeitgeist, and this thus resolves to No. En cas d'ambiguïté, un résolution N/À est possible.
