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Gecikmeli20 Şub 23 22:31 UTC2 Oca 28 07:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill Nauru's GDP per capita (PPP) still be higher than Sudan's in 2028, according to the most recent estimate?
Manifold MarketsWill US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
Manifold MarketsU.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter?
KalshiUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
Related to ACX five year predictions.
- I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
- By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
- Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.