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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
By 2028, will economists attribute a visible break in US economic or productivity trends to AI?
Manifold MarketsWill real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill US GDP per capita exceed 10x Western Europe's before 2050?
Manifold MarketsU.S. nonfarm productivity YoY above 3% in any 2026 quarter?
KalshiUS GDP growth in Q3 2026?
PolymarketUS GDP growth in Q3 2026
FutuurKurallar
Related to ACX five year predictions.
- I will resolve this based on my impression of the consensus of economists at that time.
- By "visible break", I mean clearly larger than ordinary year-to-year variation, and widely remarked upon.
- Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
- A direct effect of AI refers to economic changes directly caused by AI itself, and does not include effects resulting from phenomena like an AI industry bubble bursting.