Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEkonomi7yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 75%
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9 dakika önce güncellendi
28 Ağu 26 12:50 UTC31 Ara 33 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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FutuurFed Decision in September?
PolymarketKurallar
William MacAskill, along with two others, has accepted a bet "on explosive AI-driven growth" proposed by macroeconomist Ben Moll, with one other joining his side of the bet, offering 4:1 odds against (implying a 20% change of YES):
- [tweet]This market will resolve when their bet is resolved unless they somehow abandon the bet, in which case I will attempt to apply the specified resolution criteria, which are as follows:
- The fast-growth side wins if there is any quarter Q, up to and including 2033Q4, such that U.S. real GDP per capita in Q is at least 15% higher than the previous peak, defined as the highest quarterly real GDP per capita recorded in any quarter up to and including Q−4 (i.e., as of one year before Q).
- Otherwise the no-fast-growth side wins.
- Data series: the official BEA measure — "Real gross domestic product per capita," U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 7.1 (series A939RX; quarterly, seasonally adjusted). "Real" means inflation-adjusted: nominal GDP deflated using the BEA's chain-type GDP price index (the GDP deflator), currently expressed in chained 2017 dollars.
- The series is currently available on FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/A939RX0Q048SBEA
Açık piyasalar
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53%
- No change-3.0pt46%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺100,4 Mn
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺30,1 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,5 Mn
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt53.9%
- September Meeting+2.0pt46.1%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺429,4 B
POLYMARKETCore CPI MoM - August 2026
- 0.2%-1.5pt51.4%
- 0.3%+4.5pt34.3%
- 0.1%-1.5pt10.5%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- 1 (25 bps)+2.0pt41.5%
- 0 (0 bps)+1.0pt28.3%
- 2 (50 bps)+3.0pt23.6%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
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- State of the economy at the end of 2026
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- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
- CPI core in August
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
İlgili Kriptolar
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 75% fiyatlıyor.
- Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2033.
- Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: William MacAskill, along with two others, has accepted a bet "on explosive AI-driven growth" proposed by macroeconomist Ben Moll, with one other joining his side of the bet, offering 4:1 odds against (implying a 20% change of YES):