Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression?
InflationOne-OffMacro & EconomyEkonomiTrade PolicyEquitiesJeopolitik3ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 95.7%
Tahminciler
32
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Nis 25 11:45 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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KalshiKurallar
In the first Great Depression, the stock market fell, leading to an initial crisis, and then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 severely curtailed global trade both by instituting tariffs on US goods and inviting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.
- Similarly, in 2025, the stock market crashed, and then worldwide tariffs were imposed.
- However, whereas the 1930 trade war only increased tariffs to 20%, the weighted average United States tariffs in 2025 already falls between 25% and 30% (depending on source), even before the cycle of retaliatory tariffs has begun.
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any time before January 1, 2027, it is the consensus of largely unbiased mainstream sources like The New York Times, CNN, ABC, or CBS that the economy is or was in a "depression" after January 1, 2025.
- Use of the word "recession" is insufficient for YES.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
Açık piyasalar
InflationPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt52.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase+0.2pt1%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺90,4 Mn
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺32 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2,6 Mn
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺20,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+2.0pt54.2%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.8%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETFed rate hike in 2026?
- Yes70.3%
- No29.7%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺425,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺391 B
- CPI core in August
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
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- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
İlgili Kriptolar
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 96% fiyatlıyor.
- Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will 2025 be referred to as the start of the second Great Depression? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: In the first Great Depression, the stock market fell, leading to an initial crisis, and then the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 severely curtailed global trade both by instituting tariffs on US goods and inviting retaliatory tariffs from other countries.