Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 85.7%
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31
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Nis 25 03:56 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will there be another global pandemic before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?
Manifold MarketsWill the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
Manifold MarketsFed Decision in September?
PolymarketInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
KalshiCPI in August
KalshiKurallar
Resolves YES if global GDP decreases by 10% according to the following page or an equivalent release from the IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD
- The decrease does not have to happen over one year.
- Two years of 6% decreases in a row would resolve YES.
- The market resolves NO if there is a brief decrease which does not show up on the yearly data (for example, the 2020 recession would not qualify, even if it briefly caused 10% GDP decline).
- I believe the last historical example of a global depression was 1929-1932.
Açık piyasalar
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-1.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺75,8 Mn
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
+12 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺20,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 3.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺31,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺1,9 Mn
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺17,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺620 B
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP-23.0pt71%
- Above -7.5% of GDP-4.0pt56%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺678,5 B
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+3.0pt87%
- Above 0.2%-4.0pt32%
+8 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺997,4 B
- CPI in September
- Recession this year?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?
- Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 86% fiyatlıyor.
- Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2029.
- Will there be a global depression in the 2020s? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if global GDP decreases by 10% according to the following page or an equivalent release from the IMF: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDP_RPCH@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD