Bonds & Treasuries

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

7.0%5g

4.8% or above

99%

5% or above

99%

4.9% or above

98%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

68 • Orta kaliteOrta spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$25,4 B

24s Hacim$1,3 B

KALSHI

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.0%5g

4.1% or above

99%

3.95% or above

99%

4% or above

99%

+16 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$12,7 B

24s Hacim$3,3 B

KALSHI

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.0%5g

4.3% or above

+6.0%99%

4.35% or above

99%

4.5% or above

97%

+16 daha fazla sonuç

56 • Orta kaliteSpread bilinmiyorOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$12,9 B

24s Hacim$3 B

KALSHI

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

3.0%5g

4.2% or above

99%

4.25% or above

99%

4.3% or above

99%

+16 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$13,9 B

24s Hacim$611

KALSHI

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.31% or above

92%

4.33% or above

85%

4.35% or above

+4.0%82%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$3,6 B

24s Hacim$3,5 B

KALSHI

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

25.0%1g

4.31% or above

99%

4.33% or above

95%

4.35% or above

93%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$3,4 B

24s Hacim$2,8 B

KALSHI

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

5.01% or above

98%

5.07% or above

96%

5.09% or above

92%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

52 • Orta kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$2,8 B

24s Hacim$2,3 B

KALSHI

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

4.46% or above

+3.0%84%

4.48% or above

+3.0%80%

4.5% or above

69%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

36 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$2,6 B

24s Hacim$1,6 B

KALSHI

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

5ay

Hayır

97.5%

Evet

2.5%

Topluluk tahmini66 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

23.0%1g

4.21% or above

99%

4.23% or above

99%

4.29% or above

+23.0%96%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

36 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$3,4 B

24s Hacim$655,4

KALSHI

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

1.0%1g

4.56% or above

99%

4.58% or above

99%

4.6% or above

94%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

36 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$2,4 B

24s Hacim$910,3

KALSHI

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

2040 and later

53.4%

2027

12.1%

2030-2039

10%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini16 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

5ay

Evet

76.2%

Hayır

23.8%

Topluluk tahmini13 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

5ay

Hayır

89%

Evet

11%

49 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadYüksek likidite

Toplam Hacim$71,6 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

1.0%5ay

4.0%

+0.3%100%

3.7%

+1.0%12%

3.5%

-0.5%11%

+6 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$221,7 B

24s Hacim$91

POLYMARKET

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5ay

4.5%

+11.2%100%

4.6%

+4.9%100%

4.4%

-1.5%100%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$259,7 B

24s Hacim$8,4

POLYMARKET

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Evet

50.7%

Hayır

49.3%

Topluluk tahmini8 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

2ay

Hayır

91%

Evet

40 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$66 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?

5ay

Hayır

90%

Evet

10%

40 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$41,3 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

5.0%5ay

4.75% or above

+5.0%59%

5.15% or above

+8.0%33%

5% or above

+1.0%28%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$14 B

24s Hacim$56,7

KALSHI

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

2.0%5g

4% or above

99%

4.2% or above

99%

4.25% or above

99%

+16 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$10,7 B

24s Hacim$54,2

KALSHI

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

0.1%5ay

$39 trillion

-0.1%100%

$40 trillion

+1.3%97%

$41 trillion

-2.0%41%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

49 • Düşük kaliteDar spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$11,7 B

24s Hacim$0

POLYMARKET

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

2ay

Above 3.30%

99%

Above 3.40%

98%

Above 3.50%

98%

+13 daha fazla sonuç

40 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$9,5 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.25% or above

84%

4.31% or above

72%

4.35% or above

55%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

36 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likidite

Toplam Hacim$289

24s Hacim$286

KALSHI

USDT reserve share in T-bills at end of 2026?

7ay

Above 60.0%

62%

Above 62.0%

50%

Above 58.0%

40%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

40 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$8,3 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

0.4%5ay

2.8-3.0%

-0.4%23%

2.6-2.8%

-2.0%22%

2.0-2.2%

-1.8%21%

+4 daha fazla sonuç

71 • Orta kaliteDar spreadOrta likidite

Toplam Hacim$5,2 B

24s Hacim$1,8

POLYMARKET

Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?

Hayır

95.1%

Evet

4.9%

Topluluk tahmini6 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US defaults on debt by 2027?

0.3%5ay

Hayır

96%

Evet

CoinRithm referansı4%· ±0 puan

24 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$16,2 B

24s Hacim$0

POLYMARKET

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

5ay

Hayır

94%

Evet

40 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$11,4 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

US Treasury 1-month yield on July 31?

3.69 to 3.71

30%

3.75 or more

30%

3.72 to 3.74

29%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteSpread bilinmiyorOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$463,2

24s Hacim$0

FUTUUR

US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?

4.55 or more

51%

4.50 to 4.54

27%

4.46 to 4.49

18%

+3 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteSpread bilinmiyorOrta likiditeYüksek belirsizlik

Toplam Hacim$418,8

24s Hacim$0

FUTUUR

When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)

5ay

>2026

78.2%

2026

15.7%

2025

4.6%

+2 daha fazla sonuç

Topluluk tahmini21 tahminciTür: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

1.5%5ay

Hayır

-0.0%80%

Evet

+0.0%20%

24 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$11,5 B

24s Hacim$0

POLYMARKET

SOFR at end of Q4 2026

5ay

Above 3.25%

98%

Above 3.00%

81%

Above 3.75%

80%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

40 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$4,9 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

7.0%5ay

Above -20bps

98%

Above -30bps

93%

Above 0bps

93%

+8 daha fazla sonuç

28 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$2,6 B

24s Hacim$39,1

KALSHI

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

0.5%5ay

Hayır

+0.0%89%

Evet

11%

24 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$3,8 B

24s Hacim$0

POLYMARKET

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

5ay

Hayır

91%

Evet

10%

40 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadOrta likiditeSonuca yakın

Toplam Hacim$2,1 B

24s Hacim$0

POLYMARKET

Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026

5ay

Above .7%

65%

Above .8%

36%

Above .9%

28%

+1 daha fazla sonuç

24 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$2,7 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

5ay

Evet

77.4%

Hayır

22.6%

Topluluk tahmini6 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

5.05% or above

93%

5.15% or above

58%

5.19% or above

49%

+12 daha fazla sonuç

44 • Düşük kaliteOrta spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$174,3

24s Hacim$141

KALSHI

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

5ay

Hayır

90%

Evet

10%

Topluluk tahmini11 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

5ay

Evet

50.9%

Hayır

49.1%

Topluluk tahmini8 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

5ay

Evet

66.1%

Hayır

33.9%

Topluluk tahmini9 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

Hayır

70%

Evet

30%

Topluluk tahmini6 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

5ay

Evet

56.4%

Hayır

43.6%

Topluluk tahmini7 tahminciTür: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

At least 4bps

79%

At least 8bps

67%

At least 10bps

57%

+7 daha fazla sonuç

24 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$1,8 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

5ay

Exactly 2.25%

47%

Exactly 2.50%

35%

Exactly 3.25%

+5 daha fazla sonuç

24 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$1,6 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

US defaults before 2027?

5ay

Hayır

96%

Evet

CoinRithm referansı4%· ±0 puan

24 • Düşük kaliteGeniş spreadDüşük likiditeSığ piyasa

Toplam Hacim$1,2 B

24s Hacim$0

KALSHI

İlgili Kripto Varlıkları

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

USDT reserve share in T-bills at end of 2026?

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

US Treasury 1-month yield on July 31?

US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?

When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

SOFR at end of Q4 2026

10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

US defaults before 2027?