Probabilidade implícita atual
Não 52.5%-1.5pt
Qualidade do mercado
31 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
22,9 €
Baixa liquidezCompra / Venda
21.0% / 74.0%
Spread
53.0 pt
Spread amploComentários
0
Variação 7d
+0.5 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 minutos
19/08/26, 16:44 UTC1/07/27, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
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PolymarketRegras
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events.
- The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023.
- A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
- The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist.
- Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration.
- Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.