Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?
0.8 pts (24h)GeopolíticaOne-OffRussia / Ukraine1m
PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 96%+0.8pt
Qualidade do mercado
70 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
324,7 €
Liquidez
11,9 mil €
Liquidez médiaCompra / Venda
3.8% / 5.0%
Spread
1.2 pt
Spread apertadoComentários
0
Variação 7d
-0.1 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 minutos
26/08/26, 21:43 UTC1/11/26, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
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PolymarketRegras
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
- Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
- The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative.
- Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.