PolymarketVerificar disponibilidadeSem KYC2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
40%+ 99%-1.3ptLíder entre 3 opções
Qualidade do mercado
47 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
428,3 €
Liquidez
5,3 mil €
Liquidez médiaSpread
6.5 pt
Spread amploComentários
0
Variação 7d
+28.4 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 minutos
13/08/26, 21:54 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
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PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketWill OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI’s Astra face U.S. government restrictions before January 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegras
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
- A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market.
Mercados abertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 132,8 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 100,3 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 322,4 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de OpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut??
- A Polymarket cota 40%+ em 99% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando OpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? é resolvido?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como OpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut? é liquidado?
- A Polymarket liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.