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Dados de 10 de out. de 2026, 17:33 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidade implícita atual
JD Vance 48.6%Líder entre 32 opções
Qualidade do mercado
22 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Liquidez
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Liquidez desconhecidaTraders
5,221
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 minuto
24/02/26, 14:33 UTC1/01/00, 00:01 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsRegras
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until the nomination is officially determined. - **Market Close:** This market remains open until a resolution is achieved. - **Resolution Deadline:** The market will resolve as soon as an outcome is reached.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **individual candidate who officially wins and accepts the 2028 Republican Party nomination for President of the United States**. - If candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - Confirmation will rely on the Republican Party’s **official communications**, as well as reporting from: - **Associated Press** - **Reuters** - **Fox News**
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - Once the Republican National Committee (RNC) or the candidate formally announces and accepts the nomination, the market resolves immediately. - If a candidate later withdraws, is replaced, or is removed before Election Day, this does not impact the already resolved outcome. - Superdelegate counts, internal party projections, or unofficial announcements are insufficient unless they are formally confirmed by the party or supported by the resolution sources.
Comparação de fontes de previsão
- Também disponível em Limitless — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 24%
- Também disponível em Manifold Markets — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 46%
- Também disponível em PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · JD Vance 40%
- Também disponível em Polymarket — Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 · J.D. Vance 48%
- Também disponível em Kalshi — 2028 Republican presidential nominee · J.D. Vance 42%
- — Republican Presidential Nominee
