Will JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleição1a
FutuurVerificar disponibilidadeDados de resolução verificadosProbabilidade implícita atual
Sim 51%
Sim 51%Qualidade do mercado
32 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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563,7 €
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24
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0
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 minuto
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This market will resolve based on whether JD Vance is formally declared the Republican Party’s presidential nominee for the 2028 U.S. presidential election at the Republican National Convention (RNC).
- Primary Designated Source (PDS): the official roll call of delegates and the certification of the nomination by the Republican National Committee.
- To count as the nominee, Vance must receive the majority of pledged delegate votes required under RNC rules and be officially confirmed as the presidential nominee at the convention.
- Resolution Timing and First-Truth Principle: This market will generally resolve at the conclusion of the 2028 Republican National Convention once the official nominee is declared.
- Resolution will prioritize the substantive reality of whether Vance is or is not the Republican nominee, not minor technicalities of process.
- Winning sufficient delegate support in primaries or caucuses before the convention (even if JD Vance secures the required delegate majority and the RNC publicly confirms it before the convention) is not enough to resolve this market to "Yes", unless the RNC modifies its procedures and makes a binding announcement of the nomination before the convention takes place.