Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 51.2%
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 6 horas
Desatualizado1/08/26, 16:23 UTC1/03/30, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will we get AGI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsWill anyone sucessfully redteam creation of smallpox before 2028?
Manifold MarketsUS plague travel ban on Russia in 2026?
PolymarketPlague declared public health emergency by which date?
PolymarketWill WW3 start before gta6?
Manifold MarketsRegras
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2030
- MOD EDIT (Nov 2, 2025 - @Stralor)
- This market uses In what specific year will we hit AGI? as its baseline.