Will Turkey and/or Northern Cyprus occupy the Republic of Cyprus before 2030?
One-OffRússia / UcrâniaGeopolíticaEuropa3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 89.9%
Não 89.9%Previsores
11
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado2/01/24, 15:24 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Northern Cyprus be recognized by a country other than Turkey before October 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia occupy Dnipro ( Dnepropetrovs'k ) at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Turkey Move on a New Constitution in 2026?
PolymarketWill Turkey become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?
PolymarketRegras
Resolution criteria
- If currently unoccupied part of the Republic of Cyprus is occupied by the Turkish military forces or by the forces of Northern Cyprus before the market end, then the resolution is YES.
- If occupation is partial, but more than half of the current area (that is not occupied as of 2024-01-02) of the republic is occupied, then the resolution is also YES.
- If the occupation forces are not official military forces of Northern Cyprus and/or Turkey, but they are supplied and/or significantly supported by them, then the resolution is YES (e.g. cases similar to Donetsk/Lugansk Peoples Republics after 2014 would also be considered as occupation by Russia for the purposes of this market).
- Otherwise the resolution is NO.
- Author betting policy