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Dados de 15 de out. de 2026, 19:02 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualNão 71.6%
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14
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado24/02/25, 06:16 UTC21/01/29, 05:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiRegras
I'll have to use my own judgement, but to clarify what I mean by "bizarre", I'm talking about someone like Matt Gaetz or Kash Patel - lacking experience, publicly flaunts the law, that sort of thing.
- The idea of this market is to determine whether Trump will try to appoint someone beyond the norm.
- Therefore, if they are "merely" as controversial as a sitting justice, that would be a NO.
- A nominee would not resolve YES on the basis of ideological extremism unless they were substantially further right than Thomas and Alito, and they would not resolve YES on the basis of potential crimes unless the accusations were more credible than those against Kavanaugh.
- Examples of what would be a clear YES would be Judge Judy or Marjorie Taylor Greene.
- To give you an idea of where "the line" is: I would say Ted Cruz is probably the craziest example I could give that would still resolve NO.
