How many votes will Van Hollen get on the first Senate leader ballot?
10.0 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffEleição1m
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPonto médio do livro selecionado
At least 8 · —
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Preço registado
At least 8 86%Líder entre 8 opções
At least 8 86%Qualidade do mercado
59 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
2,1 mil €
Contratos em aberto
3,4 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
— / —
At least 8Spread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
13/11/26, 15:45 UTC3/01/27, 04:59 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · At least 8
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KalshiRegras
If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 16 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Senate DemocratsThe New York TimesAssociated PressBloomberg NewsReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABC NewsCBS NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBC News
- The first ballot is the first ballot held by the Senate Democratic caucus to elect its leader for the 120th Congress. The count is the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on it, as reported by a Source Agency. The count is 0 if no ballot is held before Jan 3, 2027, including if the caucus elects its leader without one (for example by acclamation, voice vote or unanimous consent). A report that the leader was elected unanimously that gives no number and does not say a ballot was held counts as an election without a ballot, unless a Source Agency reports that a ballot was held. If Chris Van Hollen withdraws, the count is the number of votes cast for him on the first ballot, and 0 if none were cast. Only an exact number reported by a Source Agency counts; a range, a margin or an approximate number does not. If a ballot is held but no Source Agency reports the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen by the Expiration Date, the market resolves to the last fair price as solely determined by the Exchange. If Source Agencies report different counts, the count reported by the Source Agency listed first is used. The following do NOT count: Votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on a later ballot A motion or voice vote after a ballot to make the result unanimous Votes cast for any other candidate, or abstentions
Regras de cada resultado
- At least 8
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 8 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 12
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 12 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 16
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 16 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 20
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 20 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 24
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 24 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 22
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 22 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 32
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 32 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 28
- If the number of votes cast for Chris Van Hollen on the first ballot in the Senate Democratic caucus election for its leader for the 120th Congress is at least 28 before Jan 3, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
