Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 72.7%
Previsores
30
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 22 horas
Desatualizado19/04/26, 22:31 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the SCOTUS hear a case about AI and copyright law before 2027?
KalshiAre we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be polling about AI voting advice in 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2030, will > 75% of Americans be more concerned than excited about AI?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegras
xkcd has a reputation of providing lots of commentary about contemporary tech issues.
- However, it has been notably silent about recent AI!
- Isn’t this kind of weird? Has anyone else noticed this?
- This market is about whether it continues.
- I will resolve based on whether the Artificial Intelligence category of explainxkcd contains any comics from 2026 at end of 2026.
- This assumes that it has not been manipulated; if I suspect its information is wrong I will make the judgement myself.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Volume total
- € 241,3 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 128 mil
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 mais resultados
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 349,4 mil
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will there be an xkcd about AI in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 73% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will there be an xkcd about AI in 2026? é resolvido?
- Will there be an xkcd about AI in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Will there be an xkcd about AI in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: xkcd has a reputation of providing lots of commentary about contemporary tech issues.